A Tough 2009, with a Silver Lining for IT

From the Editor, Gabriele Piccoli

This issue of the Cutter Benchmark Review is the fourth in our yearly series on technology and IT trends for the incoming year. Our focus here is to evaluate new technologies and IT trends you should be watching in 2009 and to draw some trending based on the survey results over the last four years. The latter part of 2008 was an extraordinary time for the global economy, and the results of our survey reflect the uncertainty that permeates the organizations for which our respondents work.

In order to give continuity to the issues we secured contributions from our subject matter experts from last year. Our academic contributor, with us since the inception of the yearly trends issue, is Dennis Adams. Dennis is a Associate Professor in the Decision and Information Sciences Department at the University of Houston (USA). His counterpart, writing the trends issue for the third time, is Jeroen van Tyn. Jeroen is a Senior Consultant with Cutter Consortium's Enterprise Architecture practice.

Given the exceptional moment in time that we issued the benchmarking survey for this installment of CBR, there are many unsurprising results. Staffing choices, for example, are becoming more conservative. The number of respondents indicating that they are hiring IT skills shrunk, from 46% last year to only 25% this year -- almost half. The percentage of respondents currently downsizing more than doubled. Projections are also gloomier with the number of respondents projecting increased hiring next year dropping from 55% in 2008 to 35% for 2009.

But as disappointing as these results appear to be, there seems to be a silver lining in the recession clouds. Early indications confirm the contention that in trying times more and more executives are turning to the IT shop as a solution provider in the cost-cutting efforts that inevitably stem from difficult economic times, rather than considering it the first place to seek efficiencies and cost savings. Evidence for this trend, as suggested by Jeroen, is provided by the continued spending in strategic initiatives such as enterprise architecture (EA) and service-oriented architecture (SOA). Our questions about innovation provide some corroborating evidence as the percentage of respondents who feel that in their organization's IT is a key enabler of business innovation became the leading group overtaking, albeit slightly, those who indicate that their IT shop has a reactive stance following business leadership in innovation.

This is by no means irrefutable evidence that IT is surging to a more prominent role in difficult times. But the trend points that way, and I like to think that organizations are becoming more sensitive to the potential of IT to create business opportunities -- even if it is only with a cost-cutting focus. If this is so, we have a great opportunity to turn recession lemons into IT enablement lemonade.

As Dennis puts it in his piece, the wise IT manager prepares during difficult times for the future recovery. In the same vein, how we are able to handle this increased confidence and dependency on IT during the crisis will likely sow the seed of the postrecession role of the IT shop.

As if you did not have enough to do and worry about already, the increased organizational dependency on IT, and as a consequence the increased responsibility you bear for your decision making, is another burden. But I think that, if confirmed, these trends are cause for significant optimism. One thing is for sure, as I said last year, IT work will continue to be as exciting as ever (and maybe more) in the year to come. From all of us at CBR, we wish you the best for 2009!