Cutter Business Technology Council Methodology

The Cutter Business Technology Council approaches the identification of important new trends using a process adapted from the United States Supreme Court. While other analyst firms prognosticate without explaining how they reached their conclusions, making the whole process seem like guesswork, the Council's strongly worded opinions and concurring and dissenting opinions display the thinking behind the predictions, including and explaining any contrary views.

Council Fellows begin the process with a simple Assertion. Each Assertion purports to capture a specific new trend. The Assertor presents the candidate trend to the Council and a debate ensues. If the Assertion stands through this first round, it is complemented by a written Syllabus, describing the idea in more detail and sketching in an overview of its rationale.

Each Assertion is assigned to one or more Council Fellows for the development of a written Opinion. The Opinion sets out a scenario leading to establishment of the trend and a detailed case for why such a scenario is likely to develop. It also indicates why the trend is likely to be important.

Next, the Opinions are circulated among Council Fellows who may elect to Concur (join) or Dissent, providing their reasoning, along with the assumptions behind their reasons. Each Opinion and Dissent is signed by the writer and all its joiners and concurrers.

After Opinions are signed, Council Fellows add a final section of Strategic Implications. The Strategic Implications indicate how companies and organizations can profit from and take advantage of each new development.

Why the Process Matters

Predicting the future is an iffy business. Trends may be only faintly established when first spotted - just when the trend is most important to note. The difference between a faintly established trend and an illusion of pattern is of particular concern to the Council.

By taking each trend through the Assertion-Syllabus-Opinion-Implication process, we set out the entire basis for believing in - or not believing in - the trend. The set of signed Joins and Dissents tells exactly where each Council member stands on each Assertion. The Dissents present a specific rationale for disbelieving the trends or for believing that they will develop differently from the scenarios expressed by the majority.

Armed not only with the Assertions, or trends, but also with the attributable rationale behind each assertion, your organization can more confidently bet on the future, and make decisions and develop the scenario planning that will enable you to react to events that the future will bring.