A New Paradigm or Just One More Layer?

by Tom Welsh

Hard-won experience tells us that new software technology rarely replaces old technology to the extent that it disappears altogether. Instead, successive layers build up like a coral reef. Ten years ago, it was widely stated that PCs and Unix servers would bring about the disappearance of mainframe computers. Of course, no such thing happened: today's mainframes continue to drive much of the world's business and governmental infrastructure, surrounded though they are by hundreds or thousands of times their number of smaller machines.