Risk Management Takes an Organizational Approach

by Ken Orr

In the run-up to the Iraq War, there was a systems dynamic model published on the High Performance Systems (HPS) Web site (now known as isee Systems).¹ The model showed clearly a number of feedback loops that were likely to produce bad rather than good outcomes from the invasion. As it turned out, the model was amazingly prescient, since it predicted: (1) the backlash of the Muslim world, (2) the deterioration of US/European relationships, and (3) increased rather than decreased polarization in the Middle East. The model did not predict the pushback of the Iraqis to the foreign radicals or the surge, but you can't get everything right.