Risk Assessments? You Bet!

by Jerry Peterson

In prediction markets, such as Intrade, TradeSports, and the Iowa Electronic Markets, a broad range of people express their opinions about future events in politics, economics, or sports by backing them with small bets. The results are reliable predictions of the probabilities of these future events. Program managers can use the same approach, outlined in this Executive Update, to help assess the risks they face.

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Risk Assessments? You Bet!1 April 2008