WIRELESS: THE NEXT BIG THING?

18 December 2001

by Ken Orr

In a Cutter Business Technology Trends and Impacts Council Opinion ("Instant Messaging"; Vol. 2, No. 1), I suggested that the wireless Web will be bigger than the wired Web and that this change will happen faster than the time frame in which the wired Web became prevalent. Recently, we conducted a survey to see how IT professionals view the wired world. The basic answer is that IT executives are not convinced that wireless has big implications for them. To begin with, only 30% of respondents' companies are currently developing wireless applications.

There are more companies that plan to develop wireless applications. Indeed, 37% of respondents said their companies are planning to develop wireless applications in the future. However, the net of this response is that the majority of organizations are not actively working on wireless applications.

Information Technology in the Hot Seat

In the early days of a new technology, there is often a problem finding an organizational home for the technology. That seems to be the case today with wireless: of the organizations responding, 59% put responsibility for wireless with IT; only 41% report that the business users are responsible.

Many businesses look to IT to start things off technology-wise, but it's usually when the business users get involved that a new technology catches hold within the organization. The data from our survey indicates that organizations that are currently planning for the wireless Web saw more opportunities and more often had user departments leading the charge or being jointly responsible with IT.

Another indication of the fact that wireless is seen as an "emerging" technology is that there is very little multidepartmental planning in the organizations we surveyed. More than 80% of the companies answered "no" to the question, "Does your company have a multidepartmental wireless Web planning team?"

One of the things that may be keeping organizations from getting more deeply involved in wireless technology is the issue of standards. Of those responding to our survey, the vast majority (71%) said that their senior management felt there was a need to learn about wireless standards.

How Big Is the Pie?

Organizations and entrepreneurs are vitally interested in just how big the wireless Web is going to be. Depending on who you listen to, the growth of the wireless Web will be either enormous or merely a blip. The respondents to our survey are divided as to the size and timing of the wireless Web revolution. Nearly one-third of the sample believes the wireless Web will offer more opportunities than the wired one, while about half of the respondents feel the wireless Web will offer about the same or fewer opportunities than the wired Web. A sizable group (17%) of executives think that the wired Web will ultimately offer more opportunities than the traditional Web, but not within the next five years.

The final question on our survey had to do with application integration. We asked whether companies have plans to integrate wireless applications with their existing Internet plans. Respondents were largely negative on this issue.

What Does It All Mean?

It's somewhat difficult to draw a definitive conclusion from the results of this survey. Clearly, a sizable number of people think that the wireless Web will be a big thing. On the whole, however, the majority of the people responding to this survey remain lukewarm to skeptical. It may be that with the end of the Internet boom and the return to basics, IT executives and professionals are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Certainly, the Internet and dot-coms were vastly oversold to a willing public.

Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction that the wireless Web will not only be bigger than the wired Web but will happen faster. Skeptics point to the fact that initial Web offerings, especially in North America, have not been overwhelming successes as proof that the wireless Web is overhyped, but I point to the success of cell phones and personal digital assistants and the amazing developments in Japan and Europe. The next time you're getting off an airplane or sitting in a Starbucks, count the number of people who are talking on their cell phones. Or count the number of times a day you see someone pull out a PalmPilot and "flash" their business card to someone else's PalmPilot.

This survey seems to indicate that IT management is not yet concerned about the wireless Web, but, if I'm right, we won't have long to wait to know for sure.

-- Ken Orr, Fellow, Cutter Technology Council

[For more on the Cutter Consortium wireless survey, see the September 2001 issue of Cutter Benchmark Review, available from Cutter Information Corp. at +1 800 492 1650 or +1 781 641 9876, fax +1 800 888 1816 or +1 781 648 1950, or e-mail service@cutter.com.]