INFECTIOUS DISEASE: YET ANOTHER BUSINESS CONTINUITY RISK

Over the past few years, business continuity management (BCM) planners have seen a rapid increase in the risks and threats that they must deal with.

According to Cutter Consortium Fellow and enterprise risk expert Robert Charette, this year's SARS outbreak has proven that infectious disease and its impact is yet another area that must be planned for. While a scenario such as another outbreak of SARS right on the heels of an influenza pandemic may seem unrealistic, it's exactly these kinds of alarming situations that companies should be planning for today.

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on 5 July that SARS had been contained. And while the final costs of the outbreak probably won't be known for a year or more, it's estimated that direct costs will range from US $20-$30 billion, and indirect costs including lost opportunities and general business disruption will total two to three times that much. Many businesses have already said that it may take years for them to fully recover.

Charette remarks, "There are some who are saying that the SARS epidemic was unnecessarily hyped by both the press and the WHO and that the WHO overreached its bounds with its country and city quarantine methods. From a risk standpoint, I think the WHO took the right actions, especially given the initial lack of cooperation and the secrecy of the Chinese government in regard to the outbreak. The real problem, as I see it, is that if people and companies perceive that the WHO cried wolf, they won't take the precautions that are needed to stem the spread of the next outbreak of something similar -- or worse -- when it occurs.

"One scenario that an organization's business continuity management process really must consider in some detail is the 'perfect storm.' While I'm not predicting it will happen, imagine the chaos that will occur if a pandemic of influenza (which one WHO scientist fears is overdue) is shortly followed by an outbreak of SARS this winter or next?" Charette ruminates, "Since SARS symptoms are almost indistinguishable from the flu, especially a virulent flu, they may mask one another for a while. What will the WHO's response be? Given that there may be a perception that the WHO overreacted to this spring's SARS outbreak, it may hesitate to take immediate action upon the next outbreak. And both the virulent flu and SARS could spread like wildfire."

Charette continues, "Given the business disruption caused by SARS, the likelihood of an influenza pandemic within the next few years, and possibly another outbreak of SARS this winter, it would be wise for every organization to update its BCM plan to deal with these risks. I think it would be very smart to include a section devoted to the potential impacts of contagion and what your organization can do if one breaks out in your BCM planning process."

"What happens if your city or region becomes off-limits, like certain areas of Toronto were, but to a far greater extent? What if the quarantine affects your main customer's site? What if it affects your offshore outsourcing site?" asks Charette. Other hard questions organizations must face, according to Charette, include:

• What will your employees do if they have sick children, or are sick themselves?
  
  
• What will your company do if public health officials start closing down local governments and schools as a quarantine precaution?
  
  
• As every person exposed to SARS will be quarantined for at least 10 days, does your company have plans for a liberal leave policy?
  
  
• Is your organization prepared to shut down for several weeks, or even a month?
  
  

Says Charette, "Think about it for a while. Those old Y2K plans might become handy again."

-- Cutter Consortium