Several members of the Cutter Consortium Business Technology Council recently gathered to contemplate the future of IT and concluded that the IT sector will be forever different as we emerge from the recession/depression. Though each person - Rob Austin, Christine Davis, Tom DeMarco, Lynne Ellyn, Tim Lister, and Lou Mazzucchelli - approached the topic from a different perspective, their answers reflect a broad theme: the idea that once you've driven cost out of a process, it is almost impossible to put it back in.
Each of the Council Fellows expanded on his/her impression of the future in the Council Opinion "Post-Recovery ≠ Pre-Crash." A few excerpts follow:
Tom DeMarco
Tom DeMarco predicts: "In organizations whose decision makers are fear-crazed and vision-free, new IT expenditures will have to be justified largely on offset maintenance cost. Companies that pursue this course will be the best takeover targets in the coming years. Companies that are best at resisting this course will be the ones doing the taking over."
Lou Mazzucchelli
According to Lou Mazzucchelli, "What looks to some like a revolution is really only the logical result of changes in technology economics. ... Cloud computing and SaaS are two examples; they are both manifestations of cyclical motion between centralized and decentralized computing, driven by economics, that is now biased toward centralization. My advice: protect yourself from the excesses of chasing every new technology, through higher-level architecture and design. In other words, use SaaS - but don't let your vendor's implementation architecture become your business architecture."
Lou also foresees "the lasting changes in IT will be the result of changes outside of IT. Probably the most influential is the impact of a new energy economy."
Lynne Ellyn
Reflects Lynne Ellyn: "We operate not just on the Web today but in a web of relationship, feedback loops, and quantum second- and third-order effects that are a collision of forces, seen and unseen. This is creating business, personal, and national mashups and messups, which stun, amaze, horrify, and too often, paralyze companies, nations, and individuals. What can we to do survive and perhaps thrive in this new world disorder? I can only offer this: "get as far above it as possible while immersing yourself in it as much as possible. This is the paradox that must be reconciled in our individual and collective actions.
"To be fully immersed in this new world, work with your department and your peers in the business to understand and implement - even lead - various changes. Think of change as an experiment; learn from outcomes, adapt, and help others adapt. Move quickly and crisply - fail fast; fail often; adjust and learn."
Rob Austin
"This chapter is finished; turn the page," advises Rob Austin. "For a very long time America has provided the model that the rest of the world wanted to emulate. Emulating American firms and managers is no longer what most people in business around the world want to do. You can tell that an entire way of thinking is slipping away if you listen to the desperation in the voices on the news, the voices of the 20th century clamoring to extend their hegemony. ... Anytime I see a supposed authority talking on TV, I ask myself, '20th-century voice? Or 21st?' Best to keep track, and attend to the right voices (hint: they're not the loudest ones). We should be careful of overgeneralizing, of overinterpreting events. But it seems to me that, as managers, we ought to be turning the page, feeling around for what's next."
Christine Davis
Ponders Christine Davis, "Has traditional IT too narrowly limited its mission such that it focuses only on enterprise-wide or broad business system needs? Is there a more basic mission for IT? As the IT organizational mission more closely examines the needs in this post-recovery period, the mission may have to be broadened, updated, or enhanced to address the less classic enterprise information technology requirements. For instance, should IT become the educator and trainer for all employees such that they can made better IT decisions? Maybe it's a good time to do some research and survey the troops.
A copy of the complete Business Technology Trends & Impacts Council Opinion (Vol. 10, No. 5) is now downloadable. To schedule an interview with any of the Council Fellows, contact Kim Leonard (+1 781 641 5111 or kleonard@cutter.com). See biographical information.
